Of the 317 films that were eligible for this year’s Academy Awards, 10 are still in contention for Best Picture on Sunday, and I’ve seen them all (CORRECT?). 

By now the critics and betting websites have a good sense of what films and actors will win Oscars. But that’s not necessarily who I think should win. Read on and let me know if you agree that the Academy is about to make a major mistake. 

Actress in a Supporting Role

My prediction – Amy Madigan, “Weapons”

I’d call this a two-women race between Amy Madigan’s delightfully frightful role in “Weapons” and Wunmi Mosaku’s masterful performance in “Sinners.” It’s rare we see horror films get their due at the Academy Awards, making this race exciting for genre fans. Both of these excellent actresses are in search of their first Oscars and have had strong campaigns – Madigan took home both an Actor Award and Critics Choice Award, while Mosaku captured a BAFTA and NAACP award. This one’s really a coin toss, but if I’m a betting man I’d go with Madigan for the Oscar. 

My personal choice – Teyana Taylor, “One Battle After Another”

Teyana Taylor’s performance in “One Battle After Another” is a display of true screen presence. With only about 20 minutes of screen time, Taylor leaves a huge impression on the audience helping them understand the nuances of her character, Perfida Beverly Hills, in such a short amount of time. Taylor already won a Golden Globe, but has since lost out at the other major ceremonies. That loss of momentum dwindles her Oscar odds, but if it were up to me she’d be bringing home the golden statue.

Actor in a Supporting Role

My prediction – Sean Penn, “One Battle After Another”

Going into awards season, it was unclear which “One Battle” star would pick up the majority of hardware between Sean Penn and Benicio Del Toro. That’s not so much the case anymore. Penn has won at both the BAFTAs and Actor Awards, swinging the pendulum away from former front-runner Stellan Skarsgård, who took home the Golden Globe. I can still see a world where the Academy honors Skarsgård, as he’s never received an Oscar over the course of his storied career. However, I think Penn’s momentum will be enough to carry him over the finish line.

My personal choice – Sean Penn, “One Battle After Another”

Penn puts on a powerful and prominent performance in OBAA. Everything — down to the way Colonel Lockjaw walks — is perfected in a way that makes the character feel so distinct. It feels like there’s a reason he walks like that, and everyone in the audience wants to know.

Beyond the walk, Penn does an excellent job. On the surface, Col. Lockjaw is an intimidating brute, but Penn subtly reveals the cracks that show him to be a cowardly man hiding shame and guilt behind a menacing exterior. Penn gave us an antagonist to remember for years to come, and that’s deserving of the highest praise in my book.

Actress in a Leading Role

My prediction – Jessie Buckley, “Hamnet”

It appears Jessie Buckley has this one pretty locked up, despite a late-game controversy surrounding her apparent hatred for cats. Still, I don’t think the cat community has enough sway to take away from the fact that Buckley has swept the award circuit, winning at all four major ceremonies.

And rightfully so — Buckley’s portrayal of a mother in grief is, by all accounts, perfect. Sure, there have been times when actors sweep the circuit only to come up short at the Oscars (see: Chadwick Boseman in 2020), but I don’t see this as one of them.

The Academy loves Shakespeare, and a win for Buckley would be completely justified.

My pick – Rose Byrne, “If I Had Legs I’d Kick You”

I am not a mother — I am a 20-year-old male — so the fact that Rose Byrne was able to make me feel the exhausting weight of motherhood through her performance in “If I Had Legs I’d Kick You” is nothing short of perfection.

Byrne carries this movie on her shoulders, appearing in almost every scene and constantly displaying chaos and emotional exhaustion. When judging these leading categories, I try to measure how much of the film relies on the actor’s performance. In the case of “If I Had Legs I’d Kick You,” the film is completely contingent on Byrne’s acting.

There’s simply no other way the movie works if she doesn’t deliver an amazing performance, and for that I’m giving her the Best Lead Actress nod. Unfortunately for me and the rest of the Rose Byrne fan club, this probably won’t be our year.

Actor in a Leading Role

My prediction – Michael B. Jordan, “Sinners”

If you asked me a month ago, I probably would have gone with Chalamet or DiCaprio. But after hearing the way the crowd popped after Michael B. Jordan’s win at the Actor Awards, I’m convinced there’s a new favorite. I’m not mad about that at all.

Jordan’s performance as the Smoke Stack Twins is undeniably amazing. It’s not the first time we’ve seen an actor juggle two roles in the same film, but it might be one of the best examples. Jordan makes the twins feel like completely separate characters, each with their own motives, mannerisms and personalities.

On top of portraying two real-life people, Jordan also delivers some brilliant vampire acting — which is never an easy task.

My personal choice – Timothée Chalamet – “Marty Supreme”

In a performance somewhat similar to Rose Byrne’s, Chalamet serves as the heart and soul of this unrelenting, anxiety-inducing thrill ride. He shoulders the entire movie, appearing in nearly the full runtime and pushing the film forward at a breakneck pace.

It’s no surprise he’s been in hot pursuit of an Oscar — he basically said as much during his acceptance speech at last year’s Actor Awards. I think he’s done more than enough this time around with this loud, sweaty, electric performance.

That said, if I were choosing based on every performance this year and not just the nominees, my pick would actually be Jesse Plemons for his work in “Bugonia.” 

Best Picture

My prediction – “One Battle After Another,” Paul Thomas Anderson

With wins at the Globes, BAFTAs and Critics Choice Awards, “One Battle” has virtually all the momentum heading into Oscar Sunday. It also helps that Paul Thomas Anderson is long overdue for a Best Picture win after missing out three times before. Many would argue it’s going to be “Sinners,” and although I don’t think that’s crazy – I’d be more inclined to hitch my cart to the OBAA horse.  

My personal choice – “One Battle After Another,” Paul Thomas Anderson

I’m a lover of almost everything Paul Thomas Anderson does, so I expected this to be my pick at the beginning of the year. But I’ll double down and say even if I had never seen a PTA film before, I’d still choose OBAA.

Everything about the movie works: the writing, the pacing, the cinematography and, most importantly, the performances. Every actor is perfectly in sync with whoever they share the scene with, creating amazing moments of tension, humor and drama.

Despite being a PTA passion project for the past 30 years, it’s a film that arrived at the perfect time. Its themes of revolution and generational lies will be relevant for years to come.

I hope and pray the Academy gets this one right — and I think it will.

Best director 

My prediction – Paul Thomas Anderson

Another category in which PTA has been snubbed for years. It could be considered a crime that Paul Thomas Anderson hasn’t won a Best Director Oscar yet, so this season has sort of been his victory tour for him – picking up both a Globe and a BAFTA. His last lap is the Oscars, and it would be a shame if he somehow tripped on the finish line. This is not to say a win for Ryan Coogler and his work on Sinners would be undeserved, or even too surprising. However, the PTA pick has a lot more history behind it, so I’d be hard pressed to see them go in a different direction 

My personal choice – Paul Thomas Anderson 

To just about nobody’s surprise, I’m taking Paul Thomas Anderson for best director. As stated previously, I loved “One Battle After Another” and PTA’s direction was a huge part of that. There’s a certain endearingness to Paul Thomas Anderson’s style that I just absolutely adore. His films are directed as experiences that you’re meant to feel, as opposed to pieces of media that need to be dissected – peeled back layer by layer. That’s not to say his films lack depth, it’s just that Anderson is so great blending that depth with visuals and style. He’s a masterful filmmaker and most certainly this year’s Best Director winner.