The Ukraine invasion was a shock for most of the countries that were not involved in the invasion, apart from Ukraine and Russia. The big questions here are: was Ukraine in shock as well or were they somewhat prepared for the invasion, and is the invasion favorable to Russia?
To answer these questions, I consulted Dr. Daniel Lake who has great knowledge in international Relations. Lake is a Professor in the Political Science department of the State University of New York at Plattsburgh.
Dr. Lake explained that Ukraine was aware and alert for the invasion. “It is apparent to me that the Ukrainians were prepared for it because it looks like they knew the invasion will happen eventually whether it happens on the 24th of February or later on.” he said.
This means that Russia might have portrayed some signs that proved the invasion was going to happen soon, and it seems like Ukraine knew these signs and reacted to them by training its military.“The Ukrainian military is actually trained that, if the invasion defeats them, then they will continue to fight in the form of an insurgency (guerrilla warfare); They were already planning for what they would do if they were defeated.” According to Dr. Lake, this mindset of planning for what they would do if they failed made them more than prepared for the invasion.
Is the invasion of Ukraine by Russia favorable to Russia?
In response to this question, Dr. Lake said that it has been clear that it has not been good for Russia. He also said that the Russian economy is going to shrink by at least 15 percent in 2022, and it will be hard to get foreign investment in the next decade as foreign investors will be scared of partnering with Russia for a long time.
He said that politically, Russia has isolated itself and lost a lot of allies, and in terms of security, it is clear that the Russian military is much weaker than anyone thought. Russia has undermined its own security, because it has demonstrated that its military is less trained than anyone thought. Russia has not only not been at a disadvantage in terms of the economy and politics, but also in terms of trade.
Dr. Lake said that in terms of trade, investment and ownership, there are over 100 companies that have pulled out of Russian. A popular example is Apple, which has stopped exporting products to Russia since the invasion. ExxonMobile and Coca-Cola have also pulled out.
Ukraine proved to be more than prepared for the invasion and the Russian-Ukraine invasion is clearly not favorable to Russia.